Tuesday 26 April 2011

You know what you have to do now, Forest. Don't let us down

Mercifully, it appears that Forest have hit form at exactly the right time of the season. Their 3-2 win at Bristol City was their third victory in four games and now they have established a two-point cushion between themselves and seventh place with just two games to go.

Forest seemed to be cruising when Kris Boyd made it 2-0 from the penalty spot, having put Forest into an early lead just four minutes into the match. But Bristol City staged a second-half comeback, making it 2-2, and Forest's hopes of finishing the day in sixth position looked to have been quashed as news filtered through that Millwall were winning their game at Scunthorpe. All the other results were going really well for Forest as Leeds, Burnley, and Hull were either losing, or drawing. So if Forest failed to capitalise on these results, it really would be a bitter blow. Thank god then for Luke Chambers, whose 73rd-minute header restored the lead and despite some very scary moments, including one deep in injury time when the ball actually ended up in the net, only to be thankfully ruled out for handball, Forest held on for a priceless three points.

Now the Reds have their fate in their own hands and are no longer relying on other teams slipping up. It would be foolish to assume that Forest are dead certs to win their home game against Scunthorpe next weekend, but with Scunny all but relegated to League One and now only playing for pride, Forest really should claim three points, and if they don't, they don't deserve to be in the play-offs. It's unlikely that they will secure a play-off spot next weekend, so it's almost certain to go to the last day at Crystal Palace. If we beat Scunthorpe by a handsome margin, we can really do our goal difference a power of good and then a draw at Palace should be enough.

Sunday 24 April 2011

A right royal end to the season could be in the offing at the Palace

Friday was indeed a very good one for Forest as they climbed back into the play-off places with a win over East Midlands rivals Leicester, and they remained there over the weekend thanks to other results going their way.

Forest had taken the lead twice, only for it to be wiped out soon after, but Paul McKenna's 84th minute goal, which came about after the Leicester goalkeeper Chris Weale failed to keep hold of the ball when he had made a seemingly comfortable save, proved to be the all-important winner and give Forest a crucial three points.

The game was rather a strange one as the 3-2 scoreline might suggest that it was end-to-end, but actually the goals were the only significant moments. Marcus Tudgay's 15th-minute header was his first goal in two months, but his joy was not to last for long as within five minutes Leicester were back on level terms thanks to Matt Oakley's long-range effort following sloppy Forest defending.

Just when I was thinking how boring the second half was, it suddenly burst into life in the 73rd minute when Rob Earnshaw scored from a rebound shot after Lewis McGugan's strike was thwarted by Weale. But the supporters had not even sat back down after celebrating when Leicester equalised immediately when they were awarded a free kick, which substitute Darius Vassell got on the end of to put the ball past Lee Camp.

The long-awaited debut of Robbie Findley excited the Forest fans in the last ten minutes, and he certainly looked quite promising and almost had a dream start to his City Ground career when his pace nearly caught out Weale. But soon after Forest found themselves back in front when McKenna tried his luck with a volley, which crept through the hands of Weale, much to the delight and relief of the Forest fans, and thankfully the Reds did hold on this time and moved back into sixth position.

Leeds United's goalless draw with Reading kept Forest in the top six over the weekend as they have a superior goal difference to the other sides. They could well find themselves back outside the play-off places following Easter Monday's round of matches – Forest visit Bristol City while Leeds are at Crystal Palace, who are fighting relegation, and then there's Hull, Burnley, and Millwall, all breathing down Forest's necks, waiting for them to slip up. But whatever happens on Monday, if Forest beat Scunthorpe next Saturday at the City Ground, the quest for a play-off place will probably go right down to the last game of the season when Forest meet Palace at Selhurst Park. With Palace possibly fighting to stay up, and Forest looking to secure their play-off place, it could be a massive game.

Monday 18 April 2011

Play-off hopes remain alive, but time is running out...

If we are going to make it into the play-offs this season, it will be thanks to other teams' poor results, rather than our own form. We could quite easily have found ourselves four points adrift by Saturday teatime, but Leeds' failure to beat Watford on their own pitch ensured that the gap is just two points and gives us a fighting chance of climbing back into the top six with four matches left.

It was always going to be a difficult game at high-flying Norwich City, so losing to them is certainly no disgrace. We did play reasonably well for most of the match, but our lack of finesse proved to be our undoing as Norwich recovered from the early setback of conceding a freak Nathan Tyson goal to earn a 2-1 win thanks to goals from former Forest striker Grant Holt, and Andrew Surman. The sending-off of Paul Konchesky in injury time for a double booking was something we could have done without as he will now miss the local derby against Leicester on Friday night.

There was not an awful lot wrong with the way we played, and there was no question that the effort was there, but as the game wore on, I became increasingly convinced that we were just not going to score another goal. Norwich were far from being at their best, but they seemed to be pretty comfortable as Forest ran out of ideas. Victory would have put us back in the top six, if only perhaps for 24 hours, while defeat could potentially be very damaging if results the following day went against us.

The fact that Leeds were held to a 2-2 draw against Watford was a big boost, but it's not just the teams above us that we have to worry about now, as Hull are now level with us on goal difference, with Millwall, Leicester and Burnley all within two or three points of us. I think we're going to have to win at least three of our remaining four games to give us a good chance of qualifying for the play-offs, and even that might not be enough. It's all a far cry from January when people were talking us up as possible Champions, and a play-off place looked little more than a formality.

Wednesday 13 April 2011

May this be the start of another winning run...

There was a real possibility if results went against them that Forest could have found themselves seven points adrift of the play-off places last night. Thankfully, having beaten ten-man Burnley to record their first win in ten attempts, and Derby's victory over Leeds, the Reds are very much back in contention for the top six with the gap now reduced to just one point.

It took a very long time for the game to burst into life as Forest were struggling to get going. Burnley, who not so long ago were looking a good bet for a place in the play-offs, were going through a rotten spell of form themselves, yet they were playing with a great deal more confidence than Forest. They were forced to change their game plan, though, when Martin Bartley was deservedly given his marching orders for a two-footed challenge on Luke Chambers late in the half.

Although it took them a while, Forest took control of the game after the break, and an inspired substitution from Billy Davies saw David McGoldrick replace Marcus Tudgay, and within a minute he had put Forest in front when he bundled the ball home from close range following a Lewis McGugan free kick. And then deep in injury time McGoldrick made absolutely sure of the points when he netted his second of the evening.

As the scoreboard flashed up Derby's home win against Leeds, there was a huge cheer. We may hate Derby, but we love Forest more, and they really did us a big favour. Now we can go to Norwich on Friday night with a sense of purpose. Norwich have been quite superb this season, but their draw at Watford saw them drop down into third and so hopefully the nerves will get to them on Friday. It's really amazing what a win can do for confidence, and whereas I was convinced we were in for a stuffing at Carrow Road before the Burnley win, now I feel a bit more upbeat about our prospects.

Monday 11 April 2011

It's not the despair, it's the hope we can't stand

I wasn't that devastated when Reading stole the points in injury time, seemingly after we had earned ourselves a late point. The reason being I knew in my heart of hearts that our quest for a play-off place looks set to end in disappointment, and a draw simply wouldn't have been good enough anyway. We're on such a wretched run of form at the moment that I just can't see us suddenly going on a winning run in the last six games and storm back into the play-off places.

I don't know what has happened to transform us into likely title contenders into a team playing as though it was doomed to relegation in two months. Surely not the absence of Guy Moussi? If Forest can collapse when one player disappears from the team, then quite frankly they don't deserve to call themselves a football team. Of course having an injury list as long as the Bayeax Tapestry doesn't help either, but if Nigel Doughty had bothered to back Billy Davies properly in the transfer market, we'd have the strength in depth to cope with it. Instead we're having to make do and mend, using players like Gareth McCleary, who try as they might, are just not up to the demands of Championship football. If we're playing League One standard players, we will find ourselves heading back into that division if we're not too careful next season. There needs to be a serious influx of quality players in the summer, because don't forget several of them, including Rob Earnshaw and Moussi will be out of contract. And by all accounts neither will be signing a new one, having been offered reduced terms.

I've given up on this season, and will look back on it mostly in a positive light, but when I look into the immediate future, I feel quite apprehensive. Davies has always maintained that his teams don't get going until around November and the past two seasons would certainly testify to that statement, but he didn't point out that around February everything starts going wrong. There is no point playing well for around three months if all the hard work is going to be undone again. All that false hope is very hard to deal with. I'd sooner we never had any in the first place as it just messes with our minds.

Sunday 3 April 2011

The next two games are probably pivotal

For nearly forty minutes Forest were really outplaying Leeds, but an injury to Paul Anderson and the sending-off of Chris Cohen really altered the game and in the end Forest were on the receiving end of a bit of a thrashing, which they really didn't deserve.

Forest, without a win in seven games, did not look like a team desperately short on confidence as they were passing the ball around really well and it seemed like it would only be a matter of time before they broke the deadlock. Billy Davies played a very attacking 4-3-3 team, and Leeds really found it hard to cope with us, but when Anderson was forced out of the action with an injury to the ribs, it was a blow for Forest, as he had been playing well. But an even bigger blow was to come eight minutes later when Cohen was adjudged to have lunged in at George McCartney, and to his dismay was shown a straight red card. The TV pictures showed that Cohen did not commit a sending-off offence, and Forest had been robbed of two of their key midfielders in the space of ten minutes. Not surprisingly the Reds were never the same after that, although they kept digging in and managed to keep out Leeds until half time.

But losing both Anderson and Cohen proved to be too much to cope with, and in the second half Forest capitulated, conceding four goals. Substitute Gareth McCleary, who had earlier replaced Anderson, did give us brief hope of getting back into it when he made it 2-1 with 25 minutes left, scoring a quite spectacular goal, but another couple of goals from Leeds condemned Forest to another defeat, and their day only got worse as results elsewhere saw them drop out of the play-off places.

Forest now have a couple of crucial home games coming up against Reading and Burnley, who are fighting for a play-off place. Reading's win yesterday saw them leapfrog us into sixth place, but if we beat them we will swap places with them next weekend. These two games are the most important of the season so far. If we don't get at least four points from them, we might well be facing an uphill struggle to even get a play-off place. When you consider that two months ago we were contenders for the Championship, it's a bit of a shock to say the least.