Monday 13 April 2009

Precious point sets us up nicely for the Great Escape

As expected we've gone back into the bottom three only 48 hours after Dexter Blackstock blasted us out of it, but it seems very unfair on Forest, who managed to hold Sheffield United to a goalless draw at Bramall Lane, despite being reduced to ten men after only 15 minutes of the match.

The odds seemed to be steeped in United's favour on the back of five straight wins and Forest being ravaged by yet more injury problems with Iain Turner ruled out possibly for the rest of the season with a broken toe, and the news that Rob Earnshaw could also miss the last few games with a knee problem was a big psychological blow.

When Kelvin Wilson was sent off for stupidly head-butting Greg Halford, I thought, 'that's it, we've lost'. To be honest, I had thought that when I heard the team news, so the fact that we have come away with a point is absolutely brilliant, and a huge confidence boost going into our last three fixtures against Coventry, Blackpool and Southampton. I do not want to tempt fate, but all those games look very winnable to me, and we probably don't even need to win them all. A quick glance at Barnsley's last four matches (they have a game in hand) tells me that they should be made the favourites to be relegated ahead of Forest and Norwich. They lost at home to Swansea today, and have only won one in their last eight matches. They have Reading and Coventry away next, followed by a home game against Wolves and then another away trip to Plymouth on the final day. I'm very hopeful that Forest will end up with a better points yield than Barnsley from the final games, and in which case, providing Southampton don't overtake us, will stay up!

I suspected that both Norwich and Southampton would win their home games today, but I thought we'd lose and that Barnsley would also win, so to be level on points with two other clubs is a boost. To claim four points from two good teams in Bristol City and Sheffield United is excellent, and it sets us up nicely for the home game against Coventry next weekend. If we win that, we will probably be out of the relegation zone as it's unlikely that both Norwich and Barnsley will win their away games. Norwich are at Ipswich, who are in very bad form right now, but when it comes to local derbies, anything can happen. Barnsley would do well to get a point at Reading. So even if we draw against Coventry, we could get out of the bottom three if Barnsley lose.

All Forest can do is win their remaining three games, and if they do that, they will be able to call themselves a Championship team when the season kicks off in August. Are you sitting comfortably? All will be revealed very soon...

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